UK players start to watch European markets more carefully

10 November 2005

Emissions starts to increase correlation between European power markets. As Germany and France hit new highs, Powerisk asks the question; Is the UK ahead or behind Germany and France?

The power market shifted upwards by £5 across two weeks (Week 47 and Week 48) next, week is trading at a £2.70 premium to Week 48 as players forecast whether the system can cope with higher demand, colder weather and a squeeze on gas price. This is dangerous times for the shorts, because if the answer is that prompt rises significantly +£60 then the January and February will be undervalued by £10-£15 and this will see huge buying interest from generators wishing to extract value. The six million dollar question is will they buy forward and sell on the day when they are long. The short day ahead strategy has workedin the past but with the way the market is at the moment it is very scary, as many players generators themselves could well be short. With emissions further adding to correlation between european markets, if there is a sqeeze in Germany and France expect this to be reflected across the UK.


Carbon  EU  Generation  Prompt 

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