Q1'06 bashed

01 November 2005



Q1'06 wakes up to fundamental falls in emissions and gas. The product has had some sense knocked into it, but it is still highly volatile.

Falling emissions prices and gas prices, caused the market to wake up and smash Q1 06 through £60/MWh down to £55.50, this is below the average for the contract and will no doubt encourage some players out of the woodwork. The cause of this fall has been spark spread activity and some banks and British Energy driving the price down, they are all long and aware that there is nothing fundamentally to justify Q1 06 at £60/MWh. To put this into context January was trading at around £64/MWh this was £25-30/MWh premium to the day ahead itself also coming into some severe selling pressure. This price differential was difficult justify even with a very cold winter and plant and gas supplies freezing. The clever players got out of this last week when the market looked to be held up artificially. Does this mean it will continue to fall? One suspects that a dranatic market move like this, will cause some over selling and no doubt, the buyers will return. read more ...

Government hints at dropping emissions penalties.  

02 November 2005


DTI misunderstands market and hints at dropping its only tooth in a highly regulated market.  read more...

Q1 06 falls further  

03 November 2005


Q1 attracts few buyers but at these levels they will come out of the woodwork.  read more...

Bears still around  

04 November 2005


Bears push market down on the back of gas, the run has been quite long lived and some will question when the bulls will return.  read more...

Q1 06 rises on French strikes  

07 November 2005


Market moves upwards on fears and jitteryness. Also last week the market looked a little oversold.  read more...

Bulls are back with fundamental shift  

08 November 2005


Gas drives fear and jitteryness back into the market as Q1 rises £2.50 and the prompt and January rise by over £3 in a day.  read more...

Gas prices drive power ever upwards.  

09 November 2005


Clean dark spread cheaper than the clean spark as gas sellers go on holiday. German demand for emissions allowances produces semi-squeeze in prices.  read more...

UK players start to watch European markets more carefully.  

10 November 2005


Emissions starts to increase correlation between European power markets. As Germany and France hit new highs, Powerisk asks the question; Is the UK ahead or behind Germany and France?  read more...

Are the markets broken?  

14 November 2005


The market is becoming more volatile less liquid and players are spooked, it is not broken, it is just more scary to operate it.  read more...

Thin liquidity, sketchy trading.  

15 November 2005


Difficult trading conditions in panic buying and low liquidity, causes gapping and a feeling that the market is close to broken.  read more...

Market comes off on the back of gas was it overcooked?  

16 November 2005


Prompt and Q1 fall on correction from overbuying last week, in reality how long lived this sell off will be is anyones guess.  read more...

Spark spread mathematics does not add up.  

17 November 2005


One example of why buying physical power to cover a demand short is so difficult when you cannot sell or buy and sell gas.  read more...

Bulls back, nuclear debate clear cut.  

21 November 2005


Week 47 holds key to unlocking how the rest of Winter may pan out. Nuclear debate looks over before it even started.  read more...

Bears hibernate in the winter!  

22 November 2005


Market on bull run, which does not look like stopping, players on day ahead prices, are being forced to turn off. Ineos Chlor and Tioxide cannot produce with these energy costs as high as they are.  read more...

Gas market threatens to push to £2 a therm  

23 November 2005


Gas is responsible for huge increase in prices across all commodities, players filled with fears associated with further rises, are now beginning to just hope that prices fall.  read more...

Power and Gas prices fall on the back of profit taking  

24 November 2005


The profit taking in the gas and power market saw a small sell off, but the market remains jittery and the fall bearing in mind other commodity news is small.  read more...

Power and Gas pause for thought  

25 November 2005


As the markets start to wind down for Christmas the price stays relatively high. Met forecasts of the coldest winter ever do not help the price fall lower.  read more...

Ofgem with two pronged approach.  

28 November 2005


Ofgem shows its teeth by commisioning two investigations and also suggests that they are watching the LNG gas facilities at Grain very carefully.  read more...

Bearish Sentiment feeds into market on potential mild weather  

29 November 2005


Prices fall as most had predicted but with mild weather on the way the fear is when will the next cold snap strike.  read more...

Prices rise on more buyers coming out of the woodwork.  

30 November 2005


Still too many uncertaintities that buyers accept that a small dip in price is worth buying up. The sellers are sitting on the hands whilst the buyers try and look relaxed when buying, but everyone knows that they are not.  read more...


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