An easy trade or not?
With March ceasing to trade (because it has broken down to its constuent weeks) it is no great surprise that the front months of Summer have finally come into focus. For quite alot of the Winter Q2 and Q3 have been trading flat and on some occasions Q3 trading at a margin above Q2. Traditionally Q2 always trades at a premium because it is generally colder during April, May and June in comparison to Jul, Aug and September. However, this is a risky trade to put on as recent years have seen some big price spikes in Aug and Sept with Winter closer and gas and oil prices rising during these months power has followed suit.
17 November 2005
One example of why buying physical power to cover a demand short is so difficult when you cannot sell or buy and sell gas. read more...
03 August 2005
"Ceteris Paribus"- Latin. English - "All things being equal." read more...
18 May 2005
The picnic is still going on and the bears remain in the woods. read more...
07 March 2005
Mild weather forces drops which are tempered by a very bullish emissions price. read more...
04 March 2005
Cold snap could be the last price spike of Winter 04 read more...
The Rally Continues in Electricity
Where June ended on a bearish note, July opened with a distinctly more bullish feel to it. By the 8th July, the Winter contracts had each gained around £1/MWh with Winter 11 trading at £57.70/MWh, Winter 12 at £59.60/MWh and Winter 13 at £63.45/MWh. read more...
08 July 2011
Where June ended on a bearish note, July opened with a distinctly more bullish feel to it. By the 8th July, the Winter contracts had each gained around £1/MWh with Winter 11 trading at £57.70/MWh, Winter 12 at £59.60/MWh and Winter 13 at £63.45/MWh. read more...
Energy Curves regain some of the Losses
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains. read more...
01 July 2011
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains. read more...
Prompt Prices at a Premium to Winter..
The focus this week has been on the prompt markets with system constraints and gas uncertainty the main cause. Together the constraints and uncertainty have had an interesting impact on the shape of the power forward curve. read more...
01 October 2010
The focus this week has been on the prompt markets with system constraints and gas uncertainty the main cause. Together the constraints and uncertainty have had an interesting impact on the shape of the power forward curve. read more...
Gains Seen Across the Curve
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
New trading levels anticipated in UK Power Markets
The electricity market saw two main technical levels breached for the first time in the Summer 10 and Winter 10 contracts. read more...
28 August 2009
The electricity market saw two main technical levels breached for the first time in the Summer 10 and Winter 10 contracts. read more...
What's in the Mix?
While gains may have been seen in both the power and gas markets this week – the gains were not equal causing a big shift in the generation mix read more...
24 September 2010
While gains may have been seen in both the power and gas markets this week – the gains were not equal causing a big shift in the generation mix read more...
Out with the Old, In with the New
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
31 December 2009
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
Unseasonal Temperatures help to melt prices
Middle of November but no sign of wintery temperatures. The effect was to soften the prompt power market, which also felt the pressure from weak commodity curves. The downward trend fed through the power curve. read more...
16 November 2009
Middle of November but no sign of wintery temperatures. The effect was to soften the prompt power market, which also felt the pressure from weak commodity curves. The downward trend fed through the power curve. read more...
Market forgets basic principles and panics!
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
02 October 2009
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
What's Happening in the Back-End?
The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist. read more...
19 June 2009
The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist. read more...
Monthly Review - Jan 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
February Monthly Round Up
February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves. read more...
25 February 2011
February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves. read more...
Where has the market got left to go?
Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels. read more...
03 September 2010
Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels. read more...
Where's the certainty?
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
Drax up against it
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
05 March 2008
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
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