
30 June 2005
Contango - Is when the front end of the market is trading at a discount to the back end. It is more natural for markets to be in backwardation. Power markets being the exception to the rule.
Oil is now in contango, this means that the front prices in the prompt are lower than forward prices later on in the curve. The reason for this is a medium term supply problem coupled with an over supply problem in the front end. Contango markets encourage inventory building, because you can buy cheap and sell forward at higher prices. The last time there was a sustained contango in the market was in 1998 when Asian demand collapsed and production increased out of Iraq, oil was at $10 brl. Not surprisingly some will be wary of these numbers. Perhaps the main difference between now and then is that the drop in prompt oil prices was caused by a temporary blip in demand and supply. Today the cause is a sustained belief that supply is running out and that in the medium to long term, supply is only going to get worse. Perhaps interestingly, the power market is almost always in contango caused by the lack of a market to "inventory build", gas has been in contango as usual following oil. Carbon is contango (though marginally because of the bankability of permits and so the contango is more a reflection of cashflow). This cannot last forever, as players can stockpile, prompt gas, prompt oil prompt permits and still manage to procure prompt power. This will only lead to an eventual fall in the back end of a curve, causing a backwardation in most markets where they naturally belong.
67 %
POWER PRICE UPDATE
 
16 December 2004
At this time of year, traders are looking to square out positions in order to crystallize bonuses. They also look at next year, as to the clever plays in which they can make some money  
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CRC- What Price?
 
03 February 2012
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field.  
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Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
 
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though  
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Japan, Germany & MENA -Global Energy
 
18 March 2011
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately.  
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Capacity Payments Discussed as a Tool to encourage Investment
 
30 June 2010
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development.  
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Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
 
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban.  
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The downward trend comes to an end
 
22 July 2011
The Power market was finally knocked of its downward slide on 19th July with oil and gas prices helping to break the trend. Oil received a boost from lower than expected stock levels (again) and hopes that a US debt deal could be reached. While a Eurozone Emergency Summit was held to rescue the Euro and throw a further lifeline to Greece.  
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Energy Curves regain some of the Losses
 
01 July 2011
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains.  
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Summers Lack Shape
 
27 October 2008
Oil price volatility, credit constraints and the Lehman collapse has all badly affected liquidity further out on the gas curve.  
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Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)
 
04 February 2008
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse.  
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