
Friday saw new highs across the power market with Winter 05 baseload trading at £63.85 and the peak trading at £74.00. Powerisk has talked previously about the ratio between peaks and baseload and this for winter is normally around 1.2 (in other words peaks trade at a 20% increase to baseload) at the moment with the rise in the market the baseload has risen ahead of the peaks and so peaks are trading at 1.15 or 15% higher than the baseload equivalent. This is an ideal opportunity for someone with a flexible deal to put a spread trade on, buying peaks and selling baseload fixing the spread at 1.15%, if the price drops the likelihood is that the spread will return to nearer 20% and the reverse trade can be put in place. On one standard lot size this is a realised profit of £109,000. The question that has to be asked is to you believe that the market will return to historical values of 1.2.
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