Market Moves Up

11 July 2005

£20 rise in two months, VaR limits broken everywhere even the producers are buying.

Gas prices moved up to new highs on the back of emissions. The market moves upwards are relentless, and there is no doubt that risk limits and fear have pushed the market to a point where most people will be long in someway. Prompt gas prices at 23p look reasonable and even with a maintenance period going on at the moment there are many who will find it incredulous that January and February gas is trading at 1.07p and 1.05p respectively. The markets are trading on thin volume and the general consensus is if emissions start to move down others will follow. The spikes seen last October look like mere dimples with this rise, and eventually a fall is due. The problem is that there are no fundamental drivers to push prices down, and with traders breaking risk limits they want the market to continue going up. Producers even at this level are not keen to start selling into this strength and so the market is making those in denial really hurt. Power prices continued, going up and Winter 05 baseload hit a new high of £65/MWh it is not inconceivable that £70 by the end of the month could be reached. That would be £20/MWh increase in two months.


Carbon  Gas  Bull Market  Risk Management 

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