Gas leads the collapse

14 July 2005

Huge losses seen in all commodity markets as power falls £13.20/MWh in a day. Over a 20% fall in one day.

The gas curve collapsed in the last two days and despite various attempts to keep power prices in line, there was no getting away from the fundamentals which showed carbon prices off €5/tonne since the beginning of the month and power prices off £13/MWh in Winter 05. The gapping of the market down to £50/MWh was something which shocked traders and although there was a bit of a rally the likelihood is that sentiment across the market in the next couple of weeks will be very different. More over with tight risk limits as a result of the volatility in the market the likelihood is that the market will be looking for a serious correction to the relentless increase in prices seen over the last three weeks. The key to this market is too wait for the longs to be hurting and encourage them to trade out of their positions before the shorts come back in. Powerisk had predicted that there would be a dramtic sell off just not when.


Gas  Bear Market  Volatility 

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