Bears return with passion

09 December 2005

Market falls on mild weather, settling of the gas market and the start of the Christmas season. Traders happy to react to the incumbent players.

The market with drops in demand saw no reason to be as high as it was, with a £6 drop in Q1 the main product to smashed down. There is no dount that the recent buying up to the new highs has been demand led and pushed on the lack of the system to be able to cope with the increase. Recent news has filtered into the fundamentals that storage is back to full cpacity and that the cold snap is unlikely to return for a couple of weeks, odds on a white Christmas are lengthening and with players having got long on the rise, they are trying to take profits.

Interesting aside is that many of the traders have noted that a small push in the market brings the natural shorts (large end users) rushing down from the hills to trade out their positions and this buying growth moves the market as the vertically integrated players tend to step further and further back. The lesson from this is to think about positioning relative to other market participants. It was a badly kept secret that history suggested going into the market short, and with a different fundamental market to previous Winters, running a short into the Winter was always going to be high risk.


Bear Market  Weather  Storage 

Related Articles
100 % Peak demand low for one of the coldest weeks in Winter  

25 January 2007


The market is responding to low demand plentiful supply with further falls. Summer 07 has not breached £25 but there is every chance it could.  read more...

100 % Gas in the middle of Political Debate  

24 August 2006


Gas is plentiful and although a few are arguing that it could be tight most are realising that lessons have been learnt from last year.  read more...

100 % The bears are back  

07 June 2006


The market has slipped on fundamentals which suggest that the slide could be here for some time, but there are still events in the pipeline which could force some things North.  read more...

100 % Bearish Sentiment feeds into market on potential mild weather  

29 November 2005


Prices fall as most had predicted but with mild weather on the way the fear is when will the next cold snap strike.  read more...

67 % Snow and Demand Up  

16 November 2004


 read more...


other articles on Bear Market
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices  

06 January 2012


Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears.  read more...

November 2011 Review  

02 December 2011


While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive.  read more...

Plunging Prices Impact UK Energy market  

17 June 2011


Oil markets were described as 'plunging' as fears escalated over the Greek debt crisis. With the dollar/euro exchange rates under pressure oil lost value pulling down NBP gas and UK power prices too.  read more...

Downward Trend Still in Play  

13 May 2011


Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm.  read more...

A Market Correction?  

08 April 2011


Losses were seen in the UK energy markets this week despite oil gains. This was the first sign that gas was decoupling from oil with suggestions in market implying that the recent gains had been ‘over done.  read more...


other articles on Weather
Monthly Review - Jan 2012  

01 February 2012


Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant.  read more...

Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats  

27 January 2012


Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban.  read more...

Warm weather weighs heavy on prices  

06 January 2012


Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears.  read more...

The Market in April 2011  

28 April 2011


In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way.  read more...

Confidence Returns to Market  

20 December 2010


Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13.  read more...


other articles on Storage
Monthly Review - Jan 2012  

01 February 2012


Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant.  read more...

October -What to Expect  

03 October 2011


October is a month to identify some good value purchasing opportunities. History suggests we will see prices slip through the month before the real winter drivers kick in.  read more...

Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground  

10 June 2011


Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm.  read more...

Confidence Returns to Market  

20 December 2010


Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13.  read more...

UK Gas price highest in World.  

11 September 2009


The UK gas price in Q409 is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to the UK but there is real doubt as to whether these prices levels will be maintained.  read more...


Energy News by Date
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
december november october september august july jun may april march february january
RSS Feed
Keep up to date on energy trading news.
Click here to subscribe
RSS
Day Ahead Electricity Prices

1y  6m  3m  1m
Powerisk Online
Powerisk Online tools and services.
Click here to login
Glossary
Glossary
Powerisk glossary of power terminology.
Click here for glossary
Glossary