Which market do you believe

11 August 2005

Oil dictates play in the city, but gas power carbon and coal stick to the knitting and look at the fundamentals.

The city thinks that power prices are on the rise, how do we know this, because many of them are using British Energy shares as a punt for power prices, and they BGY has reached a new high. The city is probably buying power shares on the premise that all commodities must be linked to oil and so buying has to be the way forward. The gas market ticked carefully and gingerly up in the back end of the curve, but fell marginally in the prompt. News of greater interconnector capacity coming in November (a month early) and that this will lead to a potential doubling of gas imports from the continent suggested that this would put a cap on a bull run. Furthermore Rough one of the biggest gas storage facilities is at 90% capacity. So even if oil is going up the effect on the gas market is being neutered. Carbon prices remained at stable levels, with increasing oil prices this means that coal is rising a little this brings more gas plant back into production and a reason to sell carbon permits not buy them, there is some bearish pressure on carbon. Power remained relatively unscathed with a slight rise in the near prompt but a significant fall in Q4 and further non movement along the curve. If these markets continue the way people suggest the city boys have got it wrong. However, they have more money than most and if they need to bully the market be aware of future power price surges.


Carbon  Coal  Interconnector  Oil 

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