What is a fundamental

03 August 2005

"Ceteris Paribus"- Latin. English - "All things being equal."

Fundamentals are designed to be the raw underlying facts as to why a market will move. For example if there are more power plants available as a result of two plant coming back from maintenance, this would be a change in the fundamentals, (ceteris paribus) resulting in a reduction of price (increase in supply). The markets yesterday dropped across the curve predominantly led by prompt prices, which have been very high, considering the reduction in demand due to weather and the increase in power plant, three main plant have just come back from outage. Furthermore looking at the spark spread and dark spread the margin wich generators are making is very high (even factoring in a carbon price at €19/tonne). The generators will soon attract government attention if they are not careful. What surprised Powerisk is that some players felt  that the recent hike in power prices was due to weather fluctuations, for this to be a true fundamental we need extremes, either a very hot winter or summer or vice versa. No one could argue that the weather in the Uk has been anything but mediocre, average, plain, or just typically British.


UK Government  Generation  Weather  Spread 

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