Stability is the order of the day

05 August 2005

Steady and boring means that it isn't going up and if anything looks more likely to test some of the longs who may be forced to take some profits as carbon, oil and gas all look soft.

Gas seemed to be omnipresent and so prompt prices fell both in gas and power by as much as £2.50/MWh. Winter 05 remained at the same levels for baseload trading at £54.50 after a late rally pushed by gas price activity. Perhaps interestingly Q4 dropped significantly on the back of the prompt and this has seen Q1 increase in order to justify the Winter numbers. Summers continued to trade at the same levels closing at yesterdays close of £40.85 for Summer 06 and £41 for Summer 07. These numbers look very high if one considers where outturn has been for Summer 05 with hardly a day ahead number getting close to forty pounds, apart from a one week window in July. It is accepted that day ahead and forward prices are different but the relationship has broken down here and this looks overpriced.


Bear Market  Forward Curve  Prompt 

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