Further slides as the longs take profits

16 August 2005

More bears in the front end as season and months fall, but the back end of the curve looks over bought.

The market reflected more bearish activity as the longs took profits in Winter 05 before it breaks down to constituient months. There is no doubt that oil should be putting some bullish pressure on the market, but liquidity traps are too big in this market and there is now a steady balancing of positions for the next six months, the market has been overbought and not surprisingly players are surreptiously getting rid of their longs, causing prices to fall a little on the back. Winter 06 looks quite well bought as does the Summer, and so the real bargains can be picked up in front months and Winter 05. Carbon is holding firm at €22.00/tonne and with oil not looking to significantly go beyond $65 a barrel there are some bearish pressures in the market. The real question which no one can answer at the moment is whether the prompt drop will eventually effect the long dated curve.


Carbon  Bear Market  Prompt 

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