Curve continues to fall           in Winter

04 August 2005

Power market takes its lead from gas where some banks and trading houses are looking for shorting opportunities.

The Winters along the curve all fell by £1.50 across the board. Interestingly the Summers rose marginally (20p/MWh). Prompt ticked up a little £1.40/MWh, this was almost certainly on short term supply needs. The curve looks to be more balanced but the differential between September 05 and December 05 is nearly £20/MWh whilst this is narrower than it has been there is certainly pressure on this spread. Ineveitably the pressure should see the Winter dragged down if the spread continues to narrow. Most of these price movements are in response to a more mature gas market. The gas market looks slightly over supplied and banks are tending to lean on the curve where they can. There is still a fear of the unexpected but the feeling is that some utilities are buying bits of the curve but most of the trading houses are trying short it where possible.


Gas  Spread  shape 

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