Bearish Sentiment returns to Winter 05

15 August 2005

Winter ready to go bed as players start to close out positions, as most are long this means a managed a sell off. Buyers can retreat carefully.

Winter dropped off significantly trading at below £54/MWh. The reason for more bearish sentiment is that many companies will be trading the most liquid product and during the meteoric rise in June they would have got themselves into a long position. Now aware that we are only five weeks away from actual delivery of the contract they want to make sure that they secure profits. There is no point in hanging on for further rises as the market looks more bearish with gas and carbon being sold. The only slight fly in the ointment is oil but this tends to be month ahead and longer and so will not influence the short term as a result. Will the Winter go back to old levels. Well Powerisk suspects that it fall but not to £40/MWh it will probably bobble around and in the next six weeks break £50/MWh. Perhaps more worryingly the Summer looks as though real buying strength is coming into the market and those looking at how volatile it is might wish to think about getting some Summer 06 onto the books.


Bear Market  Oil  Volatility 

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