Peaks vs Baseload

22 April 2005

Is it kismet H'ratio!

In the prompt baseload traded at £30 and Peak at £32. Relatively normal one would think perhaps conceding that baseload is a little high for this time of year. In reality it is anything but normal. In the prompt the peak baseload ratio is down to a low level of 1.06. In Winter 05 this ratio is 1.21. In short this shows and interesting trading opportunity in that if the prompt prices stay at similar levels, then you could sell Winter 05 peaks and buy baseload and then unwind you position in the short term. In reality the short term is unlikely to stay like this. The reason why the peak baseload levels are as close as they are is due to the Uks current reliance on coal. In reality we would expect gas to be in short demand (because it is high in price) and any long positions will go into storage. Be prepared for a bear run in October when there is too much gas in the Uk market.


Gas  Coal  Volatility  Baseload  Peak  Prompt  Winter 

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