At this time of year, traders are looking to square out positions in order to crystallize bonuses. They also look at next year, as to the clever plays in which they can make some money. The UK power market has for the last two years developed a bit of a pattern. In that from August through to mid November, the market has become increasingly bullish. There are a series of events which have created this, prompt supply became tight, fuel prices tended to increase, and there were more natural buyers in the market as suppliers hedged their exposure to power prices by buying for customer rounds. Then as fuel price dropped, and mild weather in November, and December ensued, tightness on prompt supply loosened, the premia seen in the overbuying in the previous months were uinjustified. The six million $ question is will 2005 follow the same pattern. With more and more large customers buying on structured deals, hedging strategies are being spread across the year, this is one of the main contributory factors. Also power companies have been caught out with fuel prices and they will also look to hedge earlier, this may well lead to less of a herd mentality. Whilst power prices will continue to be effected by oil prices, emissions, gas and supply issues, those long term traders looking at 2005 may be looking to avoid the herd this year.