Natural Gas the one to watch
 
08 March 2010
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant.  
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Gas Balancing Alert Issued
 
05 January 2010
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs?  
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Winter is Coming - or is it?
 
30 November 2009
With the 'balmy' temperatures enjoyed over November , it's hard to believe that tomorrow officially marks the start of winter according to the Met Office - but what can we expect?  
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Unseasonal Temperatures help to melt prices
 
16 November 2009
Middle of November but no sign of wintery temperatures. The effect was to soften the prompt power market, which also felt the pressure from weak commodity curves. The downward trend fed through the power curve.  
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Demand Led Economic Recovery?
 
09 October 2009
What constitutes real demand is a question increasingly being asked, not least because it is viewed as a key indicator to signal the start of economic recovery. However a rise in demand may not necessarily mean a lift to the economy.  
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Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)
 
04 February 2008
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse.  
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Coal looks interesting
 
11 January 2008
Coal although massively in demand has risen so much in price that players have switched to gas, this in turn has risen and perhaps as all commodities prices start to fall on economics some will start to look at coal more seriously again.  
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German demand down 5%
 
20 December 2007
German demand drop so significant that if Europe has followed suit then the need for nuclear and new build could be put on hold.  
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Hedge funds move out of oil
 
08 August 2007
Oil slides aggressively on the back of hedge fund sellers. The question on traders lips is when will this start to feed into the power market.  
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Weather warning
 
11 July 2007
Met office predictions suggest that next Winter could be cold, but then their predictions can be prosaic!  
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July 15th
 
03 July 2007
Market stable but the sellers seem more comfortable with the complete lack of a summer.  
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Met office appear to struggle
 
25 June 2007
Its wet almost everywhere and this only proves that predicting the weather is like trying to pick the winner at Wimbledon. Everyone knows that Federer should win and this was the hottest summer on record but it looks like a Pat Cash could win again!  
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Price Slide
 
04 June 2007
Pressure from forward sellers could see the buyers run to the hills.  
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The Summer Squeeze
 
29 May 2007
Tight plant margins, unseasonable weather and volatile gas flows are all doing their bit to help firm prices.  
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Market tendencies
 
03 May 2007
The barren lands of the UK power market are seeing trading houses concentrate on greener pastures in Germany and France.  
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Q3 continues to rise
 
02 May 2007
Q3 continues to rise on some gas concerns and arbitrage opportunities with Europe. It is likely that there will be a bit of a squeeze on prices in Q3 and hence the premia but the market looks a little over hyped.  
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The market rises on hot air!
 
30 April 2007
The market rose marginally this morning as players looked to square out positions from the weekend. As players concentrated on June which is trading at a £5 premium to the week ahead.  
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An arctic test
 
16 April 2007
Will the market trickle up this week on fears of a cold snap, if so then expect a significant sell off when it is confirmed that the cold snap is definitely coming!  
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Oil Opec and why it is important
 
13 April 2007
Oil opec and demand might cause some to interpret things very differently to others but oil still plays a role in the energy markets far more so than some might have predicted.  
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Summer Haze
 
12 April 2007
The market has felt a little rudderless but this is not something which will last forever, options players and sparkers will inject some direction soon. At this time of year in the past the market has tended to fall.  
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Markets a little more buoyant
 
08 March 2007
The market continues to rise carefully, but perhaps most interestingly their are significant differences in quarters which may be of interest to some.  
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Market bounces a little
 
16 February 2007
Market sees a little support as a few buyers return to test to see if there is an upside level. Flushing out some stop losses might be the next move.  
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Has the market seen the Winter cold snap.
 
13 February 2007
The market is responding to mild weather plentiful supply and a feeling of low prices are here to stay. The long term forward buyers are being corageous in trying predict the low of the market and yet the bearish signals are still there.  
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Windy day sees lower prices
 
19 January 2007
The market is looking for fundamental signs as to what may happen in the future. Winter 07 might look overpriced when the average day ahead price for January is likely to turn out at sub £30.  
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Market Bulls reappear
 
17 January 2007
The market wakes up with avengence both in terms of bullish activity but also on volume. It appears that traders are most willing to trade with a good combination of natural buyers and sellers.  
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Prompt rises on cold snap potentials
 
16 January 2007
The market looks slightly more bullish with day ahead and next week responding to a potential cold snap. The market needs to know how cold it will be and whether the £4 premium is justified.  
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Traders claim we are at the bottom
 
15 January 2007
The market has suggested that new lows have been reached but traders are often crying wolf and the market is not so low that the players are really hurting.  
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Bulls reappear
 
18 December 2006
The market has ticked up marginally on Friday and today with some early seling in the month of January but Winter and Summer or the non-movers.  
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The problem with trading forward
 
16 November 2006
Market a little lacklustre with players slack to tighten spreads and trading small amounts of spark spreads. Sellers appear to have gone to sleep and the relentless buyers are having to bridge the bid offer spread.  
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Winter is here....
 
03 November 2006
The market is responding to the cold weather but it is not causing any concern and most are determined to concentrate on the prompt and not the longer term.  
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Weather Check
 
27 October 2006
Weather forecasts suggest that the mild weather will last well into November, but when it does start to get cold look for those tell tale price increases.  
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Q1 07 dangerously close to breaking £60
 
15 August 2006
The bears are back and the length seen as a necessity by trading houses at the begininng of the year is slowly making its way back into the market. Perhaps the hedge for today is to short British Energy shares.  
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Coolness descends on prices
 
31 July 2006
Prices fall on cool weather and players are keen to try and capitalise on this fall and so it will be interesting to see whether prices stay here for long.  
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Winter 06 slides.
 
24 July 2006
Winter 06 reacting maturely to the prompt fears and beginning to move South as gas producers start to off-load some of their length.  
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Markets stabilise
 
19 July 2006
The markets look more stable and although the back end has started to respond a little to oil and emissions it could well be short lived, as the fundamentals suggest that quite significant amounts of the 18GW of plant which was unavailable in July will return in August.  
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Two views on August.
 
18 July 2006
Two views on AUgust appear to at loggerheads and the sellers and buyers are trading aggressively. One suspects that the events of today and this week will be long forgotten by mid August.  
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Middle East explodes in the markets
 
17 July 2006
The short term facts suggest that the market had to go higher, but this does not mean that we should see the back end of the curve rise inexorably as well. Some sellers are keeping a cap on the backend of the curve but the buyers also have to be disciplined.  
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Rough influences Winter 06
 
05 July 2006
Market edgy on the back of new Rough information and a feeling that the prompt is under pressure with warm weather and plant outages. As July today has been 10 degrees hotter than average, players know that this could drive prompt very high with air conditioning demand.  
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Penalties, and prompt.
 
03 July 2006
Prompt prices the key fundamental as to what will happen with the power market. If in the next three days there are no further outages and the weather subsides so air-condintioning is not causing problems then we should see the Winter 06 fall further.  
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The bears are back
 
07 June 2006
The market has slipped on fundamentals which suggest that the slide could be here for some time, but there are still events in the pipeline which could force some things North.  
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Bulls respond to cold snap with a vengeance.
 
13 April 2006
The market has repsonded to a lack of supply and a cold snap driven demand increase with a significant price rise across the curve. It is hoped that when the snow melts so will the price but it traditionally takes longer for the back end to fall.  
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The Nightmare Scenario
 
01 March 2006
The market balloons in price, profiling is abandoned, and Mrs Jones at 33 Wavertree Mansions is seen showering at 3am in the morning. Unlikely, but it is happening in the water industry.  
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How cold has the winter been?
 
03 February 2006
Europe has been much colder than the UK and this has meant European gas and power prices are setting new highs, this only shows that the system works, but it does make the market more jittery to foreign fundamentals.  
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March moves down- but we knew it would.
 
25 January 2006
Powerisk stated some time ago that March traditionally gets over bid on the back of cold weather and spark spread data. Rarely does it last and this was predicted by Powerisk in does the spark ever breakdown.  
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Does the spark spead ever breakdown?
 
20 January 2006
March looks expensive, but the spark is keeping it high. Powerisk analyses this in further detail and suggests that there maybe opportunities to come in the near future.  
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Predicted cold weather drives prices North
 
18 January 2006
Fundamental drivers in the prompt are what are being used as the excuse for bullish activity. But commodities in general are keenly bid, oil prices are looking more likely to go higher and so players do not need excuses to buy further out.  
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Christmas Week sees drop in prices
 
22 December 2005
Very quiet as opportunities are thin on the ground. Time reflect on 2005 as a
volatile year and hope that 2006 brings more liquidity to the UK power market.  
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Bears return with passion
 
09 December 2005
Market falls on mild weather, settling of the gas market and the start of the Christmas season. Traders happy to react to the incumbent players.  
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