Spreads are the difference between two legs. So bid-offer spread is the difference between bid and offer. The spark spread is the difference between the gas and power leg.
Where's the certainty?
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
Drax up against it
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
05 March 2008
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
Prompt and Curve diverge
Could the change in price be a trading signal. read more...
19 February 2008
Could the change in price be a trading signal. read more...
Gas capacity change in 2008
Will NG announce to the market what more capapcity could be availbel at the end of the year? read more...
12 February 2008
Will NG announce to the market what more capapcity could be availbel at the end of the year? read more...
Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse. read more...
04 February 2008
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse. read more...
Spark spread for 2008
Spark spread play looks to be hotting up but who has it right? read more...
04 January 2008
Spark spread play looks to be hotting up but who has it right? read more...
Backend of curve remains strong
Market continues to fall but back end looks strong. read more...
29 November 2007
Market continues to fall but back end looks strong. read more...
Carbon steady.
CER's could be limited under the country definitions as described in certain NAPs. read more...
01 November 2007
CER's could be limited under the country definitions as described in certain NAPs. read more...
Clean and Real Spark spread comparisons
Spark spreads not always what they seem and so traders must look more carefully at the analysis. read more...
22 August 2007
Spark spreads not always what they seem and so traders must look more carefully at the analysis. read more...
Prompt ticks up
Players see a slight rise in prompt prices but recent trading suggests it is likely to be short lived. read more...
15 August 2007
Players see a slight rise in prompt prices but recent trading suggests it is likely to be short lived. read more...
October 07 could be of interest
October is an interesting shoulder month to watch, it shows a dichotomy between the gas and power market. read more...
31 July 2007
October is an interesting shoulder month to watch, it shows a dichotomy between the gas and power market. read more...
Gas markets fear low prices
Gas market shenanigans continue as players start to look carefully at the volatillity market, which continues to be over priced with stigma of fear in the gas market. read more...
20 July 2007
Gas market shenanigans continue as players start to look carefully at the volatillity market, which continues to be over priced with stigma of fear in the gas market. read more...
Power and Gas markets become contrary.
The market responding interestingly to the change inf undamenatlas, as weather gas and carbon data all influence the market in differing ways this week. read more...
13 July 2007
The market responding interestingly to the change inf undamenatlas, as weather gas and carbon data all influence the market in differing ways this week. read more...
Traders look at fundamenatals for the future.
The market makers at the back end of the curve will be careful not to take pure risk. read more...
06 March 2007
The market makers at the back end of the curve will be careful not to take pure risk. read more...
The spreads are saying something
Spreads often show correlations and how they might be linked but the correlations are breaking between Winter and Summer throughout the curve. read more...
23 February 2007
Spreads often show correlations and how they might be linked but the correlations are breaking between Winter and Summer throughout the curve. read more...
Has the market seen the Winter cold snap.
The market is responding to mild weather plentiful supply and a feeling of low prices are here to stay. The long term forward buyers are being corageous in trying predict the low of the market and yet the bearish signals are still there. read more...
13 February 2007
The market is responding to mild weather plentiful supply and a feeling of low prices are here to stay. The long term forward buyers are being corageous in trying predict the low of the market and yet the bearish signals are still there. read more...
Is Q3 over valued?
Q3 is diverging between power and gas and so the risk premia is looking expensive, the spark spread traders must be wary of this but many of them have become out and out power traders. read more...
07 February 2007
Q3 is diverging between power and gas and so the risk premia is looking expensive, the spark spread traders must be wary of this but many of them have become out and out power traders. read more...
Summers and Winters not aligned.
The summer and winters are not behaving normally, but alot of this is due to prompt prices and not having to fill up storage in Summer 2007. read more...
01 February 2007
The summer and winters are not behaving normally, but alot of this is due to prompt prices and not having to fill up storage in Summer 2007. read more...
Summer Spreads
Summer 08 looks out of kilter in comparison to the rest of the curve in reality traders seem to see some value in SUmmer 08 which does not at face value appear to be anything other than greed. read more...
30 January 2007
Summer 08 looks out of kilter in comparison to the rest of the curve in reality traders seem to see some value in SUmmer 08 which does not at face value appear to be anything other than greed. read more...
Market Bulls reappear
The market wakes up with avengence both in terms of bullish activity but also on volume. It appears that traders are most willing to trade with a good combination of natural buyers and sellers. read more...
17 January 2007
The market wakes up with avengence both in terms of bullish activity but also on volume. It appears that traders are most willing to trade with a good combination of natural buyers and sellers. read more...
Summer 07 - Dark v Spark
Be warned markets go to where it hurts, it may look like the price is falling and will continue to do so, but cursory analysis suggests that the generators might take there toys away and if they do then we could see some dramatic spikes in price. read more...
11 January 2007
Be warned markets go to where it hurts, it may look like the price is falling and will continue to do so, but cursory analysis suggests that the generators might take there toys away and if they do then we could see some dramatic spikes in price. read more...
2007 to be hottest on record
The market continues to jockey for position with bears being cagey despite significant falls in emissions. read more...
04 January 2007
The market continues to jockey for position with bears being cagey despite significant falls in emissions. read more...
Market Update- steady but the bulls are back
The market has responded to technicals and fundamentals specifically on fuel spreads. read more...
20 November 2006
The market has responded to technicals and fundamentals specifically on fuel spreads. read more...
A day of contradictions
Spark spread activity dictates what is happening in the market today. Expectations are that gas is misbehaving and eventaully will fall further. read more...
15 November 2006
Spark spread activity dictates what is happening in the market today. Expectations are that gas is misbehaving and eventaully will fall further. read more...
Spark spread of interest
Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be. read more...
24 October 2006
Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be. read more...
A tale of the forward dark spread.
Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down. read more...
16 October 2006
Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down. read more...
Spark and Dark reverse
Spark and Darks reverse in the day ahead if we starting seeing this in the forward price then expect a further downward drop and also a fall in emissions prices. read more...
02 October 2006
Spark and Darks reverse in the day ahead if we starting seeing this in the forward price then expect a further downward drop and also a fall in emissions prices. read more...
Can Winter 07 break £50
Watch the spreads this is where the money is being made and with volatility reducing it is no surprise that players are beginning to look at the margins and pricing these more accurately. Competition is back and beginning to bite. read more...
30 August 2006
Watch the spreads this is where the money is being made and with volatility reducing it is no surprise that players are beginning to look at the margins and pricing these more accurately. Competition is back and beginning to bite. read more...
Rough back in the mix.
The market is back to looking at fundmentals, with the emissions price under pressure from dark spread traders, gas looking overbought, and high both in terms of spark numbers but also in terms fundmentals, with plenty of gas around to service any injections, when they finally occur. read more...
25 May 2006
The market is back to looking at fundmentals, with the emissions price under pressure from dark spread traders, gas looking overbought, and high both in terms of spark numbers but also in terms fundmentals, with plenty of gas around to service any injections, when they finally occur. read more...
Dark and Spark spread influencing the future
Dark and spark spread prices are causing some concern, as they are not fundamentally changing the way the world looks at fuel for producing power. read more...
04 May 2006
Dark and spark spread prices are causing some concern, as they are not fundamentally changing the way the world looks at fuel for producing power. read more...
How do you spot value in the curve
Traders do not always know when there is value in the curve, but sometimes some analysis can change the balance of probabilities. read more...
03 March 2006
Traders do not always know when there is value in the curve, but sometimes some analysis can change the balance of probabilities. read more...
May 15th Emissions day
Emissions day will have a big impact on gas and power markets. Players will be jostling to see if the UBS hype of the EU system not being as short as players suggest may well prove to be damp squib. If the market is doing its job, the system is seriously short and hence the reason emissions prices are at €26.8. read more...
20 February 2006
Emissions day will have a big impact on gas and power markets. Players will be jostling to see if the UBS hype of the EU system not being as short as players suggest may well prove to be damp squib. If the market is doing its job, the system is seriously short and hence the reason emissions prices are at €26.8. read more...
A pause for thought
The market declines seen in the previous part of week, paused momentarily yesterday, but fundamentals suggest that these levels are here to stay for a while. read more...
15 February 2006
The market declines seen in the previous part of week, paused momentarily yesterday, but fundamentals suggest that these levels are here to stay for a while. read more...
The fundamentals of Summer 06
Spark and dark spreads show that the need for gas during the Summer is low, so we should see a hike in spark spread and a fall in gas prices, but it doesn't always work like that. read more...
30 January 2006
Spark and dark spreads show that the need for gas during the Summer is low, so we should see a hike in spark spread and a fall in gas prices, but it doesn't always work like that. read more...
Does the spark spead ever breakdown?
March looks expensive, but the spark is keeping it high. Powerisk analyses this in further detail and suggests that there maybe opportunities to come in the near future. read more...
20 January 2006
March looks expensive, but the spark is keeping it high. Powerisk analyses this in further detail and suggests that there maybe opportunities to come in the near future. read more...
Mild weather brings bears out of the woods
Bears return and they look destined to stay whilst the weather remains cool but not cold. read more...
13 January 2006
Bears return and they look destined to stay whilst the weather remains cool but not cold. read more...
Traders quiet but market has life left in it.
Traders waiting for Christmas as market throws enticing opportunities their way. read more...
02 December 2005
Traders waiting for Christmas as market throws enticing opportunities their way. read more...
Power and Gas prices fall on the back of profit taking
The profit taking in the gas and power market saw a small sell off, but the market remains jittery and the fall bearing in mind other commodity news is small. read more...
24 November 2005
The profit taking in the gas and power market saw a small sell off, but the market remains jittery and the fall bearing in mind other commodity news is small. read more...
Spark spread mathematics does not add up.
One example of why buying physical power to cover a demand short is so difficult when you cannot sell or buy and sell gas. read more...
17 November 2005
One example of why buying physical power to cover a demand short is so difficult when you cannot sell or buy and sell gas. read more...
Gas prices drive power ever upwards.
Clean dark spread cheaper than the clean spark as gas sellers go on holiday. German demand for emissions allowances produces semi-squeeze in prices. read more...
09 November 2005
Clean dark spread cheaper than the clean spark as gas sellers go on holiday. German demand for emissions allowances produces semi-squeeze in prices. read more...
Q1'06 bashed
Q1'06 wakes up to fundamental falls in emissions and gas. The product has had some sense knocked into it, but it is still highly volatile. read more...
01 November 2005
Q1'06 wakes up to fundamental falls in emissions and gas. The product has had some sense knocked into it, but it is still highly volatile. read more...
Bearish prompt- but many unknowns
Liquidity the oxygen of every market is on the decline. read more...
31 October 2005
Liquidity the oxygen of every market is on the decline. read more...
Bears return after bull thrash
Mild weather and plant availability pressure gas and power prices downwards. read more...
24 October 2005
Mild weather and plant availability pressure gas and power prices downwards. read more...
Gas drives market south.
Spark spreaders trading gas and power with small effect on the spread but influencing both markets quite dramatically with falls across the board. read more...
11 October 2005
Spark spreaders trading gas and power with small effect on the spread but influencing both markets quite dramatically with falls across the board. read more...
The Art of Arbitrage
As the market looks to react to fundamentals trading holes appear and the brave trader will exploit these holes ruthlessly. The trick is being able to see the wood from the trees. read more...
05 October 2005
As the market looks to react to fundamentals trading holes appear and the brave trader will exploit these holes ruthlessly. The trick is being able to see the wood from the trees. read more...
Market sparks interest in Q1 06
Q1 06 the focus for today, but the numbers on clean and dirty dark and spark spreads across the curve are most interesting. read more...
30 September 2005
Q1 06 the focus for today, but the numbers on clean and dirty dark and spark spreads across the curve are most interesting. read more...
Market falls on low trading
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
24 August 2005
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
Market normalcy returns
Calmness causes the market to stake stock and allow traders and companies to take larger more manageable positions. read more...
19 August 2005
Calmness causes the market to stake stock and allow traders and companies to take larger more manageable positions. read more...
Front months fall as predicted
Glorious 12 fails to produce many grouse, but the opportunity to snipe at bits of the curve still exists. read more...
12 August 2005
Glorious 12 fails to produce many grouse, but the opportunity to snipe at bits of the curve still exists. read more...
Curve continues to fall.......... in Winter
Power market takes its lead from gas where some banks and trading houses are looking for shorting opportunities. read more...
04 August 2005
Power market takes its lead from gas where some banks and trading houses are looking for shorting opportunities. read more...
What is a fundamental?
"Ceteris Paribus"- Latin. English - "All things being equal." read more...
03 August 2005
"Ceteris Paribus"- Latin. English - "All things being equal." read more...
September v November
Curve traders, spark traders and the prompt boys battle it out for some reasonable semblance of order. read more...
26 July 2005
Curve traders, spark traders and the prompt boys battle it out for some reasonable semblance of order. read more...
New Highs but peaks look cheap
Never lose sight of the opportunities for spread trades, peak looks like good value. read more...
08 July 2005
Never lose sight of the opportunities for spread trades, peak looks like good value. read more...
Rising Market = Long Term Deals
"The most valuable commodity I know of is information." Wall Street read more...
27 June 2005
"The most valuable commodity I know of is information." Wall Street read more...
Do markets get it wrong?
Alice: "It would be so nice if something made sense for a change." read more...
22 June 2005
Alice: "It would be so nice if something made sense for a change." read more...
Emissions Demand and Supply
"'Curiouser and curiouser,' cried Alice!" Alice and Wonderland read more...
17 June 2005
"'Curiouser and curiouser,' cried Alice!" Alice and Wonderland read more...
Bulls just won't go away.
"A coward you are Withnail. An expert in bulls you are not" Withnail and I read more...
16 June 2005
"A coward you are Withnail. An expert in bulls you are not" Withnail and I read more...
Prompt sold off with strength returning to the back end.
The options players haven't really left. read more...
13 June 2005
The options players haven't really left. read more...
Gas up Emissions down
Gas power plant making fat margins in the prompt despite power price fall in the front end. read more...
01 June 2005
Gas power plant making fat margins in the prompt despite power price fall in the front end. read more...
Emissions Spark and the prompt
Muck spreaders inflate the Winter 05 market. read more...
19 May 2005
Muck spreaders inflate the Winter 05 market. read more...
Gas down but Power keeps on going
The picnic is still going on and the bears remain in the woods. read more...
18 May 2005
The picnic is still going on and the bears remain in the woods. read more...
Spark Spreads push Power curve to new highs
One spark and the whole lot goes up........ read more...
16 May 2005
One spark and the whole lot goes up........ read more...
Correlation breakdown or correction
Spark spread rises in line with market norm. read more...
10 May 2005
Spark spread rises in line with market norm. read more...
Is Winter too cheap?
Winter 05 power to remain at current levels with gas to fall. read more...
29 March 2005
Winter 05 power to remain at current levels with gas to fall. read more...
Mild Outlook turns power down.
Mild weather forces drops which are tempered by a very bullish emissions price. read more...
07 March 2005
Mild weather forces drops which are tempered by a very bullish emissions price. read more...
Gas and Prompt Up
Curve bounces towards upper range, with bullish activity in the prompt and the gas market. read more...
15 February 2005
Curve bounces towards upper range, with bullish activity in the prompt and the gas market. read more...
Winter 05 rises to gas, but Summer 05 stays flat.
Winter 05 more volatile than the Summer. Now traditionally a good time to pick up Summer. read more...
02 February 2005
Winter 05 more volatile than the Summer. Now traditionally a good time to pick up Summer. read more...
POWER PRICE UPDATE
At this time of year, traders are looking to square out positions in order to crystallize bonuses. They also look at next year, as to the clever plays in which they can make some money read more...
16 December 2004
At this time of year, traders are looking to square out positions in order to crystallize bonuses. They also look at next year, as to the clever plays in which they can make some money read more...
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EdF enters the world of competition..
EdF has capitalised on competitive energy markets across Europe, not least in the UK, while at the same time enjoying a dominant, competition free, environment at home in France. It looks as though the EC has finally caught up with them... read more...
05 November 2009
EdF has capitalised on competitive energy markets across Europe, not least in the UK, while at the same time enjoying a dominant, competition free, environment at home in France. It looks as though the EC has finally caught up with them... read more...
Demand Led Economic Recovery?
What constitutes real demand is a question increasingly being asked, not least because it is viewed as a key indicator to signal the start of economic recovery. However a rise in demand may not necessarily mean a lift to the economy. read more...
09 October 2009
What constitutes real demand is a question increasingly being asked, not least because it is viewed as a key indicator to signal the start of economic recovery. However a rise in demand may not necessarily mean a lift to the economy. read more...
Market forgets basic principles and panics!
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
02 October 2009
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
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