Powerisk Glossary

Forward Curve


related articles

Year to Date (week 7) Lows  

22 February 2010


With the cold spell already priced into the curve and with bearish fuel prices, the power market hit year lows. At the same time, the season differentials narrowed giving the curve a smoother appearance.  read more...

Out with the Old, In with the New  

31 December 2009


During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store?  read more...

Gains Seen Across the Curve  

21 December 2009


There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve.  read more...

New trading levels anticipated in UK Power Markets  

28 August 2009


The electricity market saw two main technical levels breached for the first time in the Summer 10 and Winter 10 contracts.  read more...

Should I buy long term power contracts?  

14 August 2009


With a market in contango, should the customer steer clear of long term contracts? Probably not..  read more...

What's Happening in the Back-End?  

19 June 2009


The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist.  read more...

Market ticks up  

04 March 2009


The power market ticked up marginally today on the back of retail clients starting to hedge exposures out of April 09.  read more...

Fuel Markets Drive Prices  

12 February 2009


Pressure from the fuel markets saw prompt and forward curve power prices slip throughout the day.  read more...

Sterling in for rough ride  

22 January 2009


The UK pound is under severe pressure as economic woes weigh.  read more...

Summers Lack Shape  

27 October 2008


Oil price volatility, credit constraints and the Lehman collapse has all badly affected liquidity further out on the gas curve.  read more...

British Energy forecast to be back in Dec  

11 August 2008


Market expects to see nukes return in Decemeber.  read more...

More Price Records  

09 May 2008


More record highs in the Power Market on the back of rising oil.  read more...

Warm Weather Helps to Melt Prices  

07 May 2008


Warm weather and over supply all helped to maintain a downward pressure on gas prices both in the prompt markets and further out on the curve.  read more...

Oil price reaches record high  

04 March 2008


Oil price continue to climb spooking most markets.  read more...

Teeside sold  

27 February 2008


Teeside sold to Suez and GdF.  read more...

April 08 - trading at premium  

25 February 2008


Prices in April 08 are trading higher as supply squeeze more likely.  read more...

Centrica strategically planning  

20 February 2008


Centrica looks to Norway for the future.  read more...

Prompt and Curve diverge  

19 February 2008


Could the change in price be a trading signal.  read more...

Spectron bought by Imarex  

15 February 2008


Spectron one of the big energy brokers has been bought by a Norwegian freight competitor.  read more...

Coal weighs heavily  

14 February 2008


Coal prices have doubled in the last six months.  read more...

Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)  

04 February 2008


Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse.  read more...

Prompt pulls 09 down.  

01 February 2008


The prompt market continues to influence the back end of the curve.  read more...

Net UK Carbon position down 0.01%  

31 January 2008


Targets look quite difficult to achieve just by cutting the norm!  read more...

Oil bets show that the bulls are turning bearish  

29 January 2008


Oil prices set to slide as players turn bearish on economic demands.  read more...

Prompt and curve start to break away  

28 January 2008


The market has rallied again in the prompt on the back of the cold snap predicted at the end of the week, but encouragingly the curve has not risen with it.  read more...

Curve anomalies cause high Summer 08  

09 January 2008


Sometimes the sum of the parts does not always equal the whole. Players must look at arbitrage between months and seasons.  read more...

Bulls scare away any bearish thoughts  

08 January 2008


Markets rise on the back of predicted weather conditions which are forecast to be colder at the end of the month.  read more...

Rough starting to fill up.  

02 January 2008


Storage still a very important dynamic in the gas market.  read more...

Don't switch!  

17 December 2007


Price war looming in gas and electricity prices, but RWE play it cool with a close of doors to new customers.  read more...

Prompt prices rise as interest turns to the back of the curve  

12 December 2007


Prompt still maintains traders affections.  read more...

The curve remains high  

05 December 2007


The market looks better in the prompt but the curve still remains quite well bid.  read more...

Carbon prices forcing players to look further down the curve  

11 October 2007


Carbon prices threatening the bears party  read more...

Oil slides could start the sell off  

10 October 2007


Markets see oil fall off below $80 but when this happened last week is was not sustained. Auctioning of EUA's being looked at by the government.  read more...

Prompt continues to dominate  

05 October 2007


The market looks set to settle down after the last three weeks excitement it is probably no bad thing that the world starts to do some fundamental analysis.  read more...

Summary of the week.  

28 September 2007


The market continues to baffle as players gear up for the winter  read more...

A funny summer  

05 September 2007


Summer continues to confound, on very little traded volume.  read more...

Summer 08 analysis  

03 September 2007


The summer 08 is having to respond to the gas market which is charging too high a price for buying forward.  read more...

Plant returns without problem  

28 August 2007


Market fears allayed as almost all plant returns from outage after the bank holiday weekend.  read more...

Prompt v's Curve  

24 August 2007


Markets need activity and at the moment this is in short supply as traders gear up for the Bank holiday weekend.  read more...

Forecast vs Forward Curve  

16 August 2007


The future business conundrum on abatment projects solved here.  read more...

Prices trickle downwards  

24 July 2007


Prices trickle down on a bit of gas and trader sentiment of not wishing to upset the apple cart.  read more...

Carbon soft but bulls waiting in the wings  

18 July 2007


Carbon still bobbling around to make it interesting to the power traders.  read more...

Weather warning  

11 July 2007


Met office predictions suggest that next Winter could be cold, but then their predictions can be prosaic!  read more...

The Brent Debacle  

04 July 2007


Brent oil contracts have been in a pickle as players try and unravel the legalities of long dated options products.  read more...

July 15th  

03 July 2007


Market stable but the sellers seem more comfortable with the complete lack of a summer.  read more...

Do markets go quiet?  

02 July 2007


Rangebound trading continues as players assess requirements for next year.  read more...

Peak vs Baseload  

18 June 2007


Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing.  read more...

Gas markets dictate patterns across the Uk.  

10 May 2007


Gas markets dropped on Langeled production and this has caused some interest for the sellers.  read more...

What happens if the MET get it wrong.  

04 May 2007


Could be interesting if it does not turn out to be as hot as predicted. Players may just end up being a little long and wrong.  read more...

Power- the story so far.......  

27 April 2007


Power prices continue to look for some form of direction and eventually traing managers will ask whether their traders are taking enough risks.  read more...

Short term still influencing long term  

17 April 2007


The emissions market is still having a significant effect on the forward curve as players are still happy to pay some premiums associated with buying forward.  read more...

Winter 07 might look expensive  

20 March 2007


Breaking the constuent parts of seasons is never easy but close fundamental inspection suggests that Winter 07 looks over priced.  read more...

Why Summer 08 still looks high.  

19 March 2007


It is easy to look a t Summer 08 on its own but in comparison to some of the other seasons it does not look a good season yet.  read more...

Markets a little more buoyant  

08 March 2007


The market continues to rise carefully, but perhaps most interestingly their are significant differences in quarters which may be of interest to some.  read more...

Traders look at fundamenatals for the future.  

06 March 2007


The market makers at the back end of the curve will be careful not to take pure risk.  read more...

Market falls on a Friday  

02 March 2007


Market corrects again and volatility returns to the market good for traders but a lack of trend is causing some to think carefully about what they do.  read more...

Stock and commodities are they connected  

28 February 2007


The market is definitely in a state of flux with some players suggesting that a bull run is imminent but others hint that this is a flash in the pan. Everyone agrees that it is volatility which is returning.  read more...

Prices feel stuck  

22 February 2007


The market knows that the bottom cannot be too far away but it is being cagey when it wanst to test the low levels.  read more...

The cost of buying forward  

21 February 2007


There is a premium associated with having security, of cash flow and knowledge. £6/MWh looks too much but it is not far away.  read more...

NPower next to cut-but why  

19 February 2007


Power market falls back down on Friday as plentiful supply continues.  read more...

Why modelling might be an own GOAL.  

12 February 2007


Modelling is defintely worth using if you are confident with the assumptions but going down to spurios detail can hide the models defficiencies.  read more...

Is Q3 over valued?  

07 February 2007


Q3 is diverging between power and gas and so the risk premia is looking expensive, the spark spread traders must be wary of this but many of them have become out and out power traders.  read more...

Fundamentals (Part 2)  

23 January 2007


The long run marginal cost is only useful for existing plant, but players must understand that new build and new technology has to be planned for. In the old days under nationalised industries this was a rolling plan. Now markets have to provide this level of help. Therefore cycles of rises and falls are inevitable.  read more...

Fundamental Lows (Part 1)  

22 January 2007


Fundamental lows are something many traders ignore. But Warren Buffet and George Soros are fundamental traders and they seem to have got many things right!  read more...

Carbon reports  

10 January 2007


The market is not reacting well to the emissions world and the vrious interesting reports coming from banks predicting prices for the future.  read more...

Slowly does it  

19 December 2006


The market continues to be dull and this is of no great surprise and traders concentrate on Christmas quizes and life in the slow lane.  read more...

Bulls reappear  

18 December 2006


The market has ticked up marginally on Friday and today with some early seling in the month of January but Winter and Summer or the non-movers.  read more...

Gas storage still full  

11 December 2006


All fundamentals do point to a lower prices but it is difficult to sell when the market fundamentals have not been fully tested.  read more...

Market collapses on plentiful gas.  

04 December 2006


The market continues to freefall as players look at the fundmentals the colder it gets the more gas seems to be coming into the market and the more likley that system can cope.  read more...

Summer and Winter get hit by the prompt  

28 November 2006


The market continues to set new lows and players are comfortable to trade sporadically as prices become better.  read more...

Summer seems a long a way off  

27 November 2006


Could the market be waking up to a world where you short the forwards and buy the prompt.  read more...

Prompt continues to be bashed  

22 November 2006


Prompt continues to be of interest to most players with trading further along the curve limited.  read more...

British Energy Announce results  

17 November 2006


The market is always slow on a Friday but most will be concentrating on the British Energy annoucement and US gas stocks which have pushed oil prices down significantly.  read more...

The problem with trading forward  

16 November 2006


Market a little lacklustre with players slack to tighten spreads and trading small amounts of spark spreads. Sellers appear to have gone to sleep and the relentless buyers are having to bridge the bid offer spread.  read more...

Weather Check  

27 October 2006


Weather forecasts suggest that the mild weather will last well into November, but when it does start to get cold look for those tell tale price increases.  read more...

Spark and Dark reverse  

02 October 2006


Spark and Darks reverse in the day ahead if we starting seeing this in the forward price then expect a further downward drop and also a fall in emissions prices.  read more...

Big Numbers  

25 September 2006


Traders have to become less lazy so that they are not misquoted volatility is showing VaR levels will be breached if you are long and wrong.  read more...

Raw Facts  

20 September 2006


Market still looks high even though it has fallen.  read more...

Is buying far dated smart?  

19 September 2006


Some of the long dated products look like bargains but are there other ways of buying this.  read more...

Making sense of power prices.  

11 September 2006


Power prices have fallen in the past 3 months, 2009 is trading at a £5 discount to 2007, yet suppliers are increasing their tariffs and offering contracts to fix this year’s price for the next few years. Does it make sense?  read more...

Technicals appear to be back in fashion  

05 September 2006


The market is trading in a much more stable way than last year and technicals are very much more in fashion.  read more...

Have we seen the lows already  

17 August 2006


The market continues to create trading opportunities with a blip up one day and the overiding bearish pressure forcing things down the next.  read more...

A Winters Tale  

02 August 2006


Winter 10 looks cheap as the unknowns appear not to have been fully factored in. Winter 06 rises as Winter 07 keeps its buying strength.  read more...

Could this be a trend developing  

28 July 2006


The gas world is being a bit canny and buying early forcing the power market to respond. Is it really a trend and if so how can it played from a trading point of view.  read more...

Is now a good time to buy April Annual 07  

27 July 2006


It may look tempting as everyhing is trading at a discount to 2006 but in reality there is still alot of price premia built in to the back end of the curve on nothing more than what has happened this year. Fundamentals for next year suggest that the price should fall further.  read more...

Winter 06 slides.  

24 July 2006


Winter 06 reacting maturely to the prompt fears and beginning to move South as gas producers start to off-load some of their length.  read more...

When is a good time to trade the quarters or months  

21 July 2006


November and Q4 are not as cheap as they could be, a mild winter more supply in both gas and power than last year suggest that the market is overpriced.  read more...

Markets stabilise  

19 July 2006


The markets look more stable and although the back end has started to respond a little to oil and emissions it could well be short lived, as the fundamentals suggest that quite significant amounts of the 18GW of plant which was unavailable in July will return in August.  read more...

Market Fears over-played.  

10 July 2006


Prompt continues to wag the backend of the curve, but realistically things look to be under control, and traders are moving the market on rumour and counter-rumour.  read more...

Bears test market  

27 June 2006


Technicals look to be holding the Winter 06 baseload contract above £60 but players must be aware that technicals are working because the world cup has quitened down some the incumbent players and as long as the market jobs around no one will worry.  read more...

TECHNICALS vs FUNDAMENTALS  

23 June 2006


The emissions market has recently been extolling the virtues of technical trading. But this is a market that is still fairly new, whereas technical analysis is associated with well established markets. So why do traders insist that technicals can work for them in this market?  read more...

Long dated Summer trade again  

08 June 2006


Summers show a bit of backwardation and contango but some of the long dated power looks cheap and prices in a load of unknowns which could go either way.  read more...

The market fall starts early  

12 May 2006


The market has fallen in the prompt this morning with increasing gas in the system and the recent bubble tendency in commodities has seen some take profit.  read more...

Is now a good time for a three or five year deal.  

05 May 2006


Five year deals may look attractive because the market is in backwardation but in reality there will be other opportunities as more detail on fuel fundamentals is released. No harm in hedging some exposure for five years but not all of it.  read more...

How far can emissions go?  

03 May 2006


The emissions market has been bashed will it spring back up to previous levels. It is unlikely but possible Powerisk looks at it in detail.  read more...

Contango or Backwardation  

02 May 2006


The emissions market has not only collapsed it has also switched from being in backwardation to being in contango.  read more...

VaR, Volatility and confidence  

19 April 2006


As market become more ordered and stable VaR limits widen to allow traders to take more risk, this is fine as many models model history. In financial markets the biggest vol shift was 9/11 and in a few months this event will no longer be modelled in the financial markets an so risk limits will widen.  read more...

Oil supplies look not to have upset the power market.  

18 April 2006


Oil talk dominates the news with record highs, but the power market does not seem to reacting too much, gas already well bid is being careful about further rises.  read more...

Taking and Giving  

11 April 2006


Trading is an art, and not a science although maths and quants dominate the market eventually it comes down to where will you really do the business, and at that point sometimes a bit of coaxing from the seller or buyer can save some serious ticks.  read more...

Power Trade Forum talks the talk  

07 April 2006


Power trade forum definitely is heading in the right direction but perhaps some of the large customers are not truly reflecting the will of the players in the whole market. Time will tell.  read more...


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