Year to Date (week 7) Lows
 
22 February 2010
With the cold spell already priced into the curve and with bearish fuel prices, the power market hit year lows. At the same time, the season differentials narrowed giving the curve a smoother appearance.  
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Gains Seen Across the Curve
 
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve.  
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What's Happening in the Back-End?
 
19 June 2009
The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist.  
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Market ticks up
 
04 March 2009
The power market ticked up marginally today on the back of retail clients starting to hedge exposures out of April 09.  
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Summers Lack Shape
 
27 October 2008
Oil price volatility, credit constraints and the Lehman collapse has all badly affected liquidity further out on the gas curve.  
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Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)
 
04 February 2008
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse.  
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Don't switch!
 
17 December 2007
Price war looming in gas and electricity prices, but RWE play it cool with a close of doors to new customers.  
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Prompt continues to dominate
 
05 October 2007
The market looks set to settle down after the last three weeks excitement it is probably no bad thing that the world starts to do some fundamental analysis.  
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Summer 08 analysis
 
03 September 2007
The summer 08 is having to respond to the gas market which is charging too high a price for buying forward.  
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Prompt v's Curve
 
24 August 2007
Markets need activity and at the moment this is in short supply as traders gear up for the Bank holiday weekend.  
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Weather warning
 
11 July 2007
Met office predictions suggest that next Winter could be cold, but then their predictions can be prosaic!  
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The Brent Debacle
 
04 July 2007
Brent oil contracts have been in a pickle as players try and unravel the legalities of long dated options products.  
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July 15th
 
03 July 2007
Market stable but the sellers seem more comfortable with the complete lack of a summer.  
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Peak vs Baseload
 
18 June 2007
Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing.  
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Power- the story so far.......
 
27 April 2007
Power prices continue to look for some form of direction and eventually traing managers will ask whether their traders are taking enough risks.  
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Markets a little more buoyant
 
08 March 2007
The market continues to rise carefully, but perhaps most interestingly their are significant differences in quarters which may be of interest to some.  
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Market falls on a Friday
 
02 March 2007
Market corrects again and volatility returns to the market good for traders but a lack of trend is causing some to think carefully about what they do.  
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Stock and commodities are they connected
 
28 February 2007
The market is definitely in a state of flux with some players suggesting that a bull run is imminent but others hint that this is a flash in the pan. Everyone agrees that it is volatility which is returning.  
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Prices feel stuck
 
22 February 2007
The market knows that the bottom cannot be too far away but it is being cagey when it wanst to test the low levels.  
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The cost of buying forward
 
21 February 2007
There is a premium associated with having security, of cash flow and knowledge. £6/MWh looks too much but it is not far away.  
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Is Q3 over valued?
 
07 February 2007
Q3 is diverging between power and gas and so the risk premia is looking expensive, the spark spread traders must be wary of this but many of them have become out and out power traders.  
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Fundamentals (Part 2)
 
23 January 2007
The long run marginal cost is only useful for existing plant, but players must understand that new build and new technology has to be planned for. In the old days under nationalised industries this was a rolling plan. Now markets have to provide this level of help. Therefore cycles of rises and falls are inevitable.  
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Fundamental Lows (Part 1)
 
22 January 2007
Fundamental lows are something many traders ignore. But Warren Buffet and George Soros are fundamental traders and they seem to have got many things right!  
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Carbon reports
 
10 January 2007
The market is not reacting well to the emissions world and the vrious interesting reports coming from banks predicting prices for the future.  
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Slowly does it
 
19 December 2006
The market continues to be dull and this is of no great surprise and traders concentrate on Christmas quizes and life in the slow lane.  
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Bulls reappear
 
18 December 2006
The market has ticked up marginally on Friday and today with some early seling in the month of January but Winter and Summer or the non-movers.  
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Gas storage still full
 
11 December 2006
All fundamentals do point to a lower prices but it is difficult to sell when the market fundamentals have not been fully tested.  
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Market collapses on plentiful gas.
 
04 December 2006
The market continues to freefall as players look at the fundmentals the colder it gets the more gas seems to be coming into the market and the more likley that system can cope.  
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British Energy Announce results
 
17 November 2006
The market is always slow on a Friday but most will be concentrating on the British Energy annoucement and US gas stocks which have pushed oil prices down significantly.  
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The problem with trading forward
 
16 November 2006
Market a little lacklustre with players slack to tighten spreads and trading small amounts of spark spreads. Sellers appear to have gone to sleep and the relentless buyers are having to bridge the bid offer spread.  
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Weather Check
 
27 October 2006
Weather forecasts suggest that the mild weather will last well into November, but when it does start to get cold look for those tell tale price increases.  
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Spark and Dark reverse
 
02 October 2006
Spark and Darks reverse in the day ahead if we starting seeing this in the forward price then expect a further downward drop and also a fall in emissions prices.  
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Big Numbers
 
25 September 2006
Traders have to become less lazy so that they are not misquoted volatility is showing VaR levels will be breached if you are long and wrong.  
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Making sense of power prices.
 
11 September 2006
Power prices have fallen in the past 3 months, 2009 is trading at a £5 discount to 2007, yet suppliers are increasing their tariffs and offering contracts to fix this year’s price for the next few years. Does it make sense?  
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Have we seen the lows already
 
17 August 2006
The market continues to create trading opportunities with a blip up one day and the overiding bearish pressure forcing things down the next.  
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A Winters Tale
 
02 August 2006
Winter 10 looks cheap as the unknowns appear not to have been fully factored in. Winter 06 rises as Winter 07 keeps its buying strength.  
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Could this be a trend developing
 
28 July 2006
The gas world is being a bit canny and buying early forcing the power market to respond. Is it really a trend and if so how can it played from a trading point of view.  
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Is now a good time to buy April Annual 07
 
27 July 2006
It may look tempting as everyhing is trading at a discount to 2006 but in reality there is still alot of price premia built in to the back end of the curve on nothing more than what has happened this year. Fundamentals for next year suggest that the price should fall further.  
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Winter 06 slides.
 
24 July 2006
Winter 06 reacting maturely to the prompt fears and beginning to move South as gas producers start to off-load some of their length.  
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Markets stabilise
 
19 July 2006
The markets look more stable and although the back end has started to respond a little to oil and emissions it could well be short lived, as the fundamentals suggest that quite significant amounts of the 18GW of plant which was unavailable in July will return in August.  
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Market Fears over-played.
 
10 July 2006
Prompt continues to wag the backend of the curve, but realistically things look to be under control, and traders are moving the market on rumour and counter-rumour.  
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Bears test market
 
27 June 2006
Technicals look to be holding the Winter 06 baseload contract above £60 but players must be aware that technicals are working because the world cup has quitened down some the incumbent players and as long as the market jobs around no one will worry.  
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TECHNICALS vs FUNDAMENTALS
 
23 June 2006
The emissions market has recently been extolling the virtues of technical trading. But this is a market that is still fairly new, whereas technical analysis is associated with well established markets. So why do traders insist that technicals can work for them in this market?  
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Long dated Summer trade again
 
08 June 2006
Summers show a bit of backwardation and contango but some of the long dated power looks cheap and prices in a load of unknowns which could go either way.  
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The market fall starts early
 
12 May 2006
The market has fallen in the prompt this morning with increasing gas in the system and the recent bubble tendency in commodities has seen some take profit.  
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Is now a good time for a three or five year deal.
 
05 May 2006
Five year deals may look attractive because the market is in backwardation but in reality there will be other opportunities as more detail on fuel fundamentals is released. No harm in hedging some exposure for five years but not all of it.  
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How far can emissions go?
 
03 May 2006
The emissions market has been bashed will it spring back up to previous levels. It is unlikely but possible Powerisk looks at it in detail.  
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VaR, Volatility and confidence
 
19 April 2006
As market become more ordered and stable VaR limits widen to allow traders to take more risk, this is fine as many models model history. In financial markets the biggest vol shift was 9/11 and in a few months this event will no longer be modelled in the financial markets an so risk limits will widen.  
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Taking and Giving
 
11 April 2006
Trading is an art, and not a science although maths and quants dominate the market eventually it comes down to where will you really do the business, and at that point sometimes a bit of coaxing from the seller or buyer can save some serious ticks.  
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Power Trade Forum talks the talk
 
07 April 2006
Power trade forum definitely is heading in the right direction but perhaps some of the large customers are not truly reflecting the will of the players in the whole market. Time will tell.  
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